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The
New Automobility:
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Lyft,
Uber and the Future of American Cities
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by Bruce Schaller
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Brooklyn,
NY – August 2018 / Newsmaker Alert / Municipal
and civic officials in cities across the country are grappling with how
to respond to the unexpected arrival and rapid growth of new mobility services,
most notably, ride services such as Uber and Lyft (also called Transportation
Network Companies, or TNCs) and “microtransit” companies such as Via and
Chariot.
Are
these new mobility options friendly to city goals for mobility, safety,
equity and environmental sustainability? What risks do they pose for clogging
traffic or poaching riders from transit? What will happen when self-driving
vehicles are added to ride-hail fleets?
This
report (PDF
File) combines recently published research and newly available data
from a national travel survey and other sources to create the first detailed
profile of TNC ridership, users and usage.
The
report then discusses how TNC and microtransit services can benefit urban
transportation, how policy makers can respond to traffic and transit impacts,
and the implications of current experience for planning and implementation
of shared autonomous vehicles in major American cities.
Key
findings:
Trips,
Users And Usage
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TNCs transported
2.61 billion passengers in 2017, a 37 percent increase from 1.90 billion
in 2016.
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Combined
TNC and taxi ridership is likely to surpass local bus ridership in the
U.S. by the end of this year, making them among the largest urban transportation
providers.
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70 percent
of Uber and Lyft trips are in nine large, densely-populated metropolitan
areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, San
Francisco, Seattle and Washington DC.)
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TNCs account
for 90 percent of TNC/taxi trips in eight of these nine large metro areas
(New York is the exception), but taxis serve slightly more passengers than
TNCs in suburban and rural areas.
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TNC customers
are predominantly affluent, well-educated and skew younger.
Role
In Urban Mobility
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TNCs added
5.7 billion miles of driving in the nation’s nine largest metro areas at
the same time that car ownership grew more rapidly than the population.
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About
60 percent of TNC users in large, dense cities would have taken public
transportation, walked, biked or not made the trip if TNCs had not been
available for the trip, while 40 percent would have used their own car
or a taxi.
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TNCs are
not generally competitive with personal autos on the core mode-choice drivers
of speed, convenience or comfort. TNCs are used instead of personal autos
mainly when parking is expensive or difficult to find and to avoid drinking
and driving
Shared
Rides and Traffic
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Shared
ride services such as UberPOOL, Uber Express POOL and Lyft Shared Rides,
while touted as reducing traffic, in fact add mileage to city streets.
Even with these shared services, TNCs put 2.6 new TNC vehicle miles on
the road for each mile of personal driving removed, for an overall 160
percent increase in driving on city streets.
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Shared
rides add to traffic because most users switch from non-auto modes. In
addition, there is added mileage between trips as drivers wait for the
next dispatch and then drive to a pick-up location. Finally, in even a
shared ride, some of the trip involves just one passenger (e.g., between
the first and second pick-up).
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TNCs and
microtransit can be valuable extensions of – but not replacements for –
fixed route public transit
Public
Policy
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Trip fees,
congestion pricing, bus lanes and traffic signal timing can help cities
manage current congestion generated by increasing TNC trip volumes combined
with other demands on limited street space.
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If additional
steps are needed to reduce traffic congestion, policy makers should look
toward a more far-reaching goal: less traffic. Key steps involve limiting
low-occupancy vehicles, increasing passenger occupancy of TNCs and taxis,
changing commercial vehicle operations, and ensuring frequent and reliable
bus and rail service.
Autonomous
Vehicles
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Without
public policy intervention, the likelihood is that the autonomous future
mirrors today’s reality: more automobility, more traffic, less transit,
and less equity and environmental sustainability.
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Policy-makers
should steer AV development away from this future starting today with steps
to manage TNCs and personal autos and emphasize frequent, reliable and
comfortable high-capacity transit service.
About
Schaller Consulting
Schaller
Consulting offers expertise in urban transportation policy toward the goals
of enhancing urban mobility, environmental sustainability and road safety.
Established in 1998, Schaller Consulting specializes in taxi and vehicle-for-hire
regulatory policy; strategies to develop and enhance sustainable, multi-modal
urban transportation networks; application of road and parking pricing;
use of performance metrics in program planning and evaluation; and integration
of public engagement and market research with program and project planning.
Bruce
Schaller, Principal of Schaller Consulting, is a widely recognized expert
in these fields, with over three decades of experience working for government,
for-profit and non-profit entities. He has consulted to local and regional
transportation agencies throughout North America, held senior positions
in the largest municipal transportation and taxi agencies in the United
States and managerial responsibilities in the U.S.’s largest transit agency.
Most recently, he served as a senior official in the New York City Department
of Transportation, where he led two divisions in the agency’s development
and implementation of innovative, world-class programs on street design,
traffic management, pricing and parking policy, bus rapid transit and performance
measurement.
Schaller
Consulting has been retained by local governments, transit and airport
authorities across North America. Clients include public sector agencies
in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, San Diego, San Jose, Austin, Laredo,
Rochester (NY) and Ottawa, Canada and in the Los Angeles, Boston, Dallas
and Washington DC areas. Non-profit and private sector clients include
the Regional Plan Association, the Design Trust for Public Space, transit
advocacy groups, international unions and major banks.
Bruce
Schaller has been cited by the New York Times as “an expert on transportation.”
NY1 News called him “one of New York’s foremost transportation experts.”
The Washington Post cited him as a “nationally recognized expert
in the cab business.” The Financial Times of London referred to
his Taxi Fact Book as the “indispensable” guide to the NYC taxicab industry.
Contact:
Bruce
Schaller
718-768-3487
www.SchallerConsult.com
www.Twitter.com/Bruce_Schaller
PDF
File: www.SchallerConsult.com/rideservices/automobility.pdf |