Alexandria, VA – April
2025 / NewsmakerAlert:
Retailers
remain optimistic about their financial health, despite cost and changing
consumer behavior being top business challenges, Dr.
Thomas Weinandy, senior research economist at Upside, explained at
the 2025 NACS State of
the Industry Summit in Dallas April 8-10.
During the session “U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025 and Beyond,” Weinandy characterized 2024 as a year of uncertainty when reflecting on the previous 12 months. “This year, the word is ‘uncertainty’ to describe the economy. My metaphor for how the economy is performing is that it’s a cargo ship that’s navigating through narrow straits amid foggy conditions. Over the past year, the economy has made slow and steady progress. It’s been advancing, but there’s actually not much room to maneuver,” said Weinandy. “There are rocks on both sides, there are dangerous things that might happen, but so far, we’ve been able to keep chugging along. But amid the foggy conditions, it’s going to become even more difficult to navigate. This is creating uncertainty. The ship is navigating through the strait amid all these uncertainties.” He noted that on a positive note in 2024, the job market was strong with unemployment at 4.1%, and wages grew by 1.4% after adjusting for inflation. Looking at 2025, Weinandy predicted a “50/50 chance” of a recession, citing political uncertainty and potential policy impacts as key factors impacting the economy. He also highlighted headwinds like potential tariffs and tailwinds like low unemployment that could influence the economy’s direction. To prepare for what 2025 may bring, Weinandy provided a few recommendations for retailers:
Look for exclusive NACS State of the Industry Summit coverage and insights in the June 2025 issue of NACS Magazine. About
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